When Will COVID-19 End?


Luke Li

Just a fair warning, a large part of this article will be my own calculations and speculations, the other half will be facts, official predictions, etc. 

Coronavirus has been plaguing the world for over a year now, one must ask, “When will this nightmare be over?” According to Dr. William Schnaffer, he says, “We’ve been told this virus will disappear, b

ut it won’t.” The doctor says Coronavirus is here to stay, but I think that’s quite a long shot. Dr. Brandi Greenberg estimates that the U.S. will achieve herd immunity either late this year or in summer. This is a fair estimation but it’s unlikely according to the vaccination trend.

Around 11% of the US population has already been affected with COVID-19, which means ~10% of the population has antibodies against the virus. Now, we look at the biggest player, vaccines. The Coronavirus vaccine has been administered since early January, at this point, 10% of the USA has been fully vaccinated. The U.S is currently administrating over 2.1 million vaccinations a day.

Now, let’s take a look at the data, the US last peaked on January 8th, with 300k cases in a day, seem familiar? It should, the US started handing out vaccinations in early January. The amount of cases per day have been dropping drastically every single day, in 2 months the amount of cases have gone from 300k a day to 50k. That’s crazy progress, but we’re not done yet, according to the graph, cases/day should drop below 1000 in less than a month, great news.

We’re still not done, for life to resume to absolute normality, 75% or more of the population has to receive a vaccination, and in 3 months the US has only vaccinated 10% of the population, we’re in for a rough ride. If we take into account the people that already have natural immunity to the virus, we’re ~26% of the way done. Vaccinating half the population could take half a year to a year and a half. 

photo credit: CDC.gov